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מאמר ארוך של שמיץ על אבדיה. זה מהאינסיידר, מה שאומר שאין גישה חופשית, אז אני מדביק כאן למטה למי שמעוניין (וגם בשרשור על הנוער).
מדבר על "אפקט דונצ'יץ'", ההתאמה של אבדיה למשחק המודרני, והיכולת לשחק בכל עמדה בין 1 ל-4. משבח את ראיית המשחק, התחרותיות, האינסטינקטים, המנטאליות במגרש הפתוח, הטווח, הביטחון העצמי, ויכולת הריבאונד. כאמור, אני ממש לא אתפלא אם הוא נכנס לביג בורד של אספן ל-2020 כשהם יוציאו אותו (בדרך כלל מתישהו במהלך שנת הקולג'ים). איך ששמיץ מדבר עליו, גם תחזית ללוטרי לא תפתיע אותי.
יש גם לא מעט על העונה הבאה -- ההתאמה למכבי והרצון של אבדיה לקבל דקות משמעותיות.
CHEMNITZ, Germany -- The position-free, skill-centric era of the NBA has ushered in a new style of prospect -- one loaded with deep range, sharp vision, an instinctual feel and the offensive versatility to thrive anywhere on the floor.
While there's still tremendous value placed on physical freaks and explosive athletes, the brilliance of a modern prospect like Luka Doncic has nudged the pass-dribble-shoot movement another step forward, and we're likely to see more and more position-less players pop up in the future.
At the under-20 European Championships in Chemnitz, Germany, one youth prospect showed the potential -- at least for stretches -- to develop into one of the next, new-age prospects.
Scouting Avdija's game
Deni Avdija stands 6-foot-8 with the agility of a wing, playmaking chops of a point guard, rebounding instincts of a big, range beyond NBA 3, and the confidence of a longtime veteran. The 17-year-old Serbian-Israeli point-forward stood out as the clear-cut top prospect at the U20s, teaming with tournament MVP Yovel Zoosman to help Israel capture its first FIBA gold medal.
Two to three years younger than most of his opponents, Avdija averaged 22.6 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per 40 minutes while shooting 40.1 percent from 3 over the course of seven games off the bench, making the all-tournament team in the process. No one that young has ever topped 20 and 10 rebounds per 40 minutes at the event.
Quick scout: Deni Avdija
Strengths
• Nice size, good speed in the open court
• Pushes aggressively to score or playmake
• Outstanding rebounding instincts
• Deep range on catch-and-shoots
• Comfortable isolating against switches
• Impressive on-the-move passer. PG instincts.
• Can develop into a sound on-ball defender.
• Rare confidence and fearless mentality for a player his age
Improvement areas
• Average length and athleticism
• Struggles to finish in traffic. Not the most polished ball handler.
• Can get a little bit isolation heavy
• Defensive upside is a bit limited
• Streaky shooter who falls in love with the jumper at times
• Decision-making still a work in progress
"He's amazing," said Zoosman, a 19-year-old FIBA veteran who started four EuroLeague games for Maccabi Tel-Aviv last season. "When I was 17 years old, I think I wasn't even close to his level in his age. He's huge, also. He can go wherever he wants, even in the NBA I think."
We saw Avdija post historical numbers at the under-16 Euros last summer in Montenegro and showcase his talent in April at the Albert Schweitzer under-18 Tournament in Germany. But the teenager's U20 performance might be his most impressive yet, even if the overall competition level was a bit down. Avdija struggled in the final against Croatia and still has a lot of room to improve before he becomes draft eligible in 2020, but the brash Herzliya native has the framework to develop into the type of prospect the new NBA is looking for.
Playing anywhere from point guard to power forward, Avdija can attack defensive rebounds, push with pace in transition, knock down perimeter jumpers off the catch or the bounce, and whip the ball around with impressive creativity for a player his age. He can play pick-and-roll, and beat switches with deep pullups (85th percentile as an isolation scorer), or he can operate off the ball as a spot-up shooter, closeout attacker, cutter and offensive rebounder.
The baby-faced teenager is still developing his handle, finishing (41.7 percent at the rim at the U20s), decision-making, and defense -- as he put it, "Everything in my game is improvable." But Avdija has an impressive foundational skill set for his age, and he didn't even unleash arguably his best attribute in Chemnitz in part because of his role. A Milos Teodosic fanatic who grew up playing point guard until he sprouted five inches about two years ago, Avdija has outstanding vision for a 17-year-old prospect, something that could develop into his most coveted skill as he rises through the ranks.
"I think court view -- how I think about the game is special," Avdija said in an interview.
With impressive size and a do-it-all array of offensive skills, it's often hard to quantify what position Avdija is playing on the floor -- a sound fit for where the NBA appears to be going.
"Today's game is all-arounders," Avdija said. "You can see players like [Nikola] Jokic in the NBA leading the ball so it's really changed. I think it's good. I think you can see beautiful stuff."
The son of a legendary Yugoslavian national team player and Kosovo native, Avdija grew up around basketball. His father, Zufer Avdija, spent his early years as a 6-8 sharpshooter for storied Serbian club Red Star before suffering an injury and taking his talents to Israel, where he met Deni's mother.
After finding success at the youth level, Deni Avdija eventually signed a six-year deal with Israeli power Maccabi Tel Aviv and has shined on the under-18 club circuit. He recently participated in the NBPA Top-100 camp in Virginia where he teamed up with known recruits Greg Brown, P.J. Fuller and Isaiah Mobley to win the championship while shooting over 60 percent from 2 and 40 percent from 3. Avdija carried that success over to the U20s with most NBA teams in attendance -- some seeing a poor man's Doncic, others still figuring out how his game will translate to higher levels.
While he tries to do too much at times and doesn't have freakish athleticism or length, Avdija's talent is clear, and he has the killer instinct and self-belief you don't often see in players his age. As Avdija told us during the Albert Schweitzer Tournament in April, it's "my fire in the eyes that's the most important."
He wants to bring the ball up the floor late in games. He'll pull up for 3 with a defender in his face or knock down a catch-and-shoot jumper and turn to the opponent's bench for a lengthy stare. While that's maybe a turnoff to some, Avdija has an ideal blend of competitive fire and confidence that's almost a necessity for a European prospect hoping to transition to the NBA.
Avdija is clearly not Doncic -- the most accomplished 19-year-old European prospect we've seen to date -- but how the newest Mavericks rookie fares in the NBA might play some role in the way teams look at position-less, skill-based prospects like Avdija, who is likely to eventually face similar questions about his defensive upside and ability to create against length and athleticism.
Despite his unprecedented production, Doncic still had a fair amount of skeptics among NBA front offices. He was drafted behind big men Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley III, who are not known for their feel. Should Doncic turn in a Rookie of the Year caliber season and eventually a stellar NBA career, the premium put on skill and basketball IQ over length and athleticism should continue, and prospects in Avdija's mold probably will become more and more attractive to front offices.
"I think [Doncic] is a really talented player and he did some amazing, amazing stuff, but I don't like comparing me to somebody else," Avdija said.
What's next?
The biggest question for now: Where will he play in 2018-19? It's extremely rare for any 17- or 18-year-old to play major minutes at the first division level, and given Maccabi Tel Aviv's success both in the Israeli League and the EuroLeague, there's not much room for Avdija to step in, which is a theme we're seeing more of with talented young prospects signed by big clubs, save an outlier like Doncic.
"It's hard because teams in Europe want to win and want to get the trophies," Avdija said. "Sometimes you cannot fit well in the teams. If you get minutes in those teams, it's an honor. But you don't need to be shy to go to a smaller team and play minutes. That's the most important thing to play minutes, to get improved."
Situation plays a huge role in a prospect's development, particularly in the golden years from 18 to 21. Take recent Suns draftee Elie Okobo. One year ago at the 2017 U20s, Okobo didn't even look like a lock to be drafted in 2018. But because of the freedom he had for a smaller club like Pau-Orthez, he was able to play through mistakes and eventually explode for 44 points in a playoff game against Aaron Craft, all but solidifying his stock. If he were sitting on the bench for a bigger club or dominating the youth level, Okobo might not have a four-year NBA contract to his name right now.
So it's important for Avdija to find the right spot next season, potentially being loaned out to a smaller European club where he can be tested and learn through adversity. In addition to his rare gifts, a big reason Doncic was able to look like a seasoned veteran and take home EuroLeague MVP as a 19-year-old was due to his three years of experience playing important minutes for Real Madrid.
Most of Avdija's reps have come at the U18 level, and it showed at times in Germany with failed attempts to power his way to the rim, struggling to finish in traffic or turning the ball over trying to isolate at the top of the key. As Avdija shifts toward playing against grown men, he'll eventually learn when he needs to go to floaters instead of finger rolls, adjusting his game for NBA-caliber length and athleticism.
We've seen prospects dominate their respective age group in FIBA and still not be considered top-tier NBA prospects. Take Dzanan Musa, who was not only one of the most accomplished FIBA youth prospects we've seen but also extremely productive at the pro level, yet he still barely cracked the first round for a variety of reasons.
Should Avdija find minutes at another club on loan next season -- either in the first or second division -- he could very well be seasoned enough to join Maccabi Tel Aviv in 2019-20 before potentially entering his name in the 2020 draft.
"I think I'm ready [for the first division]," Avdija said. "I'm going to play wherever is best for me. If Maccabi's going to let me play, it would be a pleasure to play. It will be an honor and I would very much like to play for coach Spahija, but you don't know. I want first of all as a player to have the best environment I can have. Coaches take care of me like I have in Maccabi now."
In between his important crossroads, Avdija has another chance to show NBA scouts his talent level this week in Skopje, Macedonia as he hopes to lead an Israel team through the B Division of the U18 Euros, aiming for a top-3 finish and a return to the A Division.
"At the end of the day I want to have fun and to play the best I can," Avdija said. "A little bit outside the court I'm a little bit silly, doing silly things like child things, but I really, really do a good separation between being on the court and being serious and being an animal, and being outside the court a little bit funny, clown you know, bringing my teammates up. That's it. I'm a happy kid
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